Planning Matcha Stock for Seasonal Peaks

Seasonal matcha demand is different in every venue, so the only reliable forecast is your own sales history. Measure how much your daily matcha use rises in your busiest weeks compared with a normal week, then scale your daily use, reorder point and safety stock by that factor before the peak starts. This article shows how to build that factor from till data, what to do if you have little history, and how to avoid carrying too much stock after the peak.

Why generic seasonality figures do not help

You will see claims that iced drinks rise by a fixed percentage in summer. Ignore them. Your peak depends on your location, footfall, weather, menu, terrace space and whether you run a seasonal special. A café next to a park and a station kiosk can move in opposite directions in the same month. Your own numbers already contain all of that.

Step 1: pull the right data

From your till or POS, export matcha drink sales by week for the last 12 months, or longer if you have it. Count every drink that uses matcha: hot and iced lattes, specials, matcha with espresso, pure serves.

Then convert drinks to grams. If your recipes use different doses, multiply each line separately.

Drink	Weekly sales	Grams per drink	Grams per week
Hot matcha latte	(your figure)	2	sales × 2
Iced matcha latte	(your figure)	2	sales × 2
Large or double-dose	(your figure)	3	sales × 3
Total			sum

Divide each weekly total by the number of trading days that week to get average daily use in grams.

Step 2: build a seasonal index

Pick a baseline: the average daily use across a few ordinary weeks with no holiday, promotion or unusual weather. Then compare every other period with it.

Seasonal index = average daily use in the period ÷ baseline daily use

A worked example with illustrative numbers (use your own):

• Baseline: 160 g per day
• Peak weeks last year: 240 g per day
• Seasonal index: 240 ÷ 160 = 1.5

An index of 1.5 means you used half as much again during the peak. Calculate it for each month or each block of weeks, so you can see when the rise starts and how long it lasts, not just how high it goes.

If you have two or more years of data, compare them. If the index moved a lot between years, look for a reason (a new menu item, a closed terrace, a change in opening hours) before you trust either figure.

Step 3: scale your stock settings

Once you know the index, apply it to the settings you already use. If you do not have a reorder point yet, set one first with reorder point and safety stock for matcha.

Setting	Normal period	Peak period
Daily use	Baseline (e.g. 160 g)	Baseline × index (e.g. 240 g)
Reorder point	Daily use × your lead time + safety stock	Recalculate with peak daily use
Safety stock	Your normal buffer	Scale up, as forecast error is usually larger at peaks
Working stock on the bar	About one day's use	About one peak day's use

Use the lead time you have actually observed from order to delivery, not an assumed one. For current shipping information, check the B2B FAQ.

Then check how long a bag lasts. Using the standard formulas:

• Usable quantity = purchased × (1 − loss %). For 1,000 g with 5% loss: 1,000 × (1 − 0.05) = 950 g.
• Theoretical stock duration = usable quantity ÷ daily use. At baseline: 950 ÷ 160 ≈ 5.9 days. At peak: 950 ÷ 240 ≈ 4.0 days.

The same bag lasts about two days less in the peak. That gap is the reason to change your order rhythm, not just your order size.

Step 4: decide how to cover the peak

There are two ways to cover a higher daily use. Choose based on your storage space and how quickly you get through an opened bag.

• Order more often. Keep the same order size and shorten the interval. Stock stays fresher, and you need less cool, dry storage space.
• Order larger quantities. Fewer orders, but more unopened stock to store well. Only do this if you have a cool, dark, dry place for it. How to store matcha in a café sets out what that means.

Whichever you choose, rotate first in, first out, and open the oldest bag first.

If you have little or no history

New venues and new menus have no seasonal data. In that case:

1. Start with a conservative estimate of daily drinks, multiply by grams per drink, and order for a short period.
2. Track grams used per week from day one. A simple stock count at the same time each week is enough.
3. Raise your reorder point as soon as two consecutive weeks run above the baseline.

A seasonal menu can also create its own peak. If you plan a summer special, add its expected sales to the forecast separately, as described in seasonal matcha menu ideas. Iced drinks often use larger cups, so check whether your iced matcha latte recipe uses the same dose as the hot version.

Peak-season planning worksheet

Copy this and fill it in about six weeks before your usual peak.

• [ ] Baseline daily use (g): ____
• [ ] Peak seasonal index from last year: ____
• [ ] Forecast peak daily use (baseline × index): ____
• [ ] Planned specials and their extra grams per day: ____
• [ ] Observed lead time (days): ____
• [ ] Peak reorder point: ____
• [ ] Peak safety stock: ____
• [ ] Storage space confirmed for extra bags: yes / no
• [ ] Date the peak usually ends: ____
• [ ] Date to return to normal settings: ____

Winding down after the peak

A common stock mistake is not running out in the peak, but holding too much at the end of it. Watch the index as the season turns. When daily use falls back towards baseline for a week or two, return your reorder point and safety stock to normal settings and let the stock run down before the next order.

Next step

Export last year's matcha sales, calculate your seasonal index, and set your peak reorder point before the season starts. Then plan your orders of Ceremonial Barista Matcha in a 1 kg bag around the peak daily use rather than the baseline.